Sigmoid curve

The sigmoid curve is a visual model of a life cycle: slow formation, accelerating performance, maturity and eventual decline. Managers can apply it narrowly to a team or more broadly to an organisation. Its central lesson is to begin the next period of development before the present one has exhausted its energy.

When to use it

• Use the sigmoid curve to judge when a team needs renewal, either to extend strong performance or to prevent an emerging decline.

Origins

Charles Handy popularised the sigmoid curve as a way to think about organisational and personal renewal. The underlying S-shaped pattern also appears in many accounts of growth and development. Handy’s managerial insight was that a successful second curve must usually begin before the first curve has visibly failed.

What it is

Imagine following a business from left to right across the curve. At A, the organisation has only just been established. It then invests money and energy in products, controls and marketing while producing little visible return at B. As marketing takes effect and products begin to sell, performance develops its own momentum and rises toward C. Eventually, sales weaken, systems age and performance flattens at D before declining toward E. The Extended Tuckman teamwork theory traces a comparable pattern in team development.

D

                                                        C          E

A

B

the diagram below Sigmoid curve 1

Points C and E deserve particular attention.

                                                       C          E

the diagram below Sigmoid curve 2

Waiting until E may feel prudent because nothing appears broken at C. By E, however, morale and energy may already be deteriorating and cash flow may be under pressure. Renewal is therefore best initiated around C, while the organisation still possesses the capacity to absorb disruption and establish another curve.

                                                  C          E

the diagram below Sigmoid curve 3

A change begun at C will still cause a temporary disturbance, and results may dip before the new curve rises. If the same intervention begins only at E, performance can fall much further before recovery starts, making the return to high performance substantially harder.

The model is particularly useful for managing teams.

How to use it

A newly assembled team initially produces little at A. Members then clarify roles, responsibilities and objectives and learn how to work together, so productivity remains modest around B. As coordination improves and objectives are achieved, performance climbs toward C. If the same people remain in unchanged roles for too long, performance may plateau at D and eventually erode toward E.

Introduce a purposeful change before the first curve reaches its peak. The intervention sends the team onto another development curve: output may fall briefly while people adjust, then rise again. Acting at C requires advance preparation at P. Managers therefore need indicators for the planning point, the arrival at C and the type of renewal most likely to help.

C

P

the diagram below Sigmoid curve 4

Early in the team’s development, managers normally agree objectives with each member and provide substantial direction. As the team begins to deliver, members may still return frequently for guidance. With experience, they create routines, understand how to meet their objectives and require much less intervention. The group becomes a reliable, well-coordinated unit.

That success creates a judgement call. The team may continue performing strongly, but routine can also make the work stale and weaken the energy that produced the original rise. The following interventions can start a fresh curve; their suitability depends on the team’s capability, the manager’s authority and the manager’s judgement:

1. Set more demanding objectives that give the team a renewed focus.
2. Rotate selected roles and responsibilities.
3. Second the strongest contributor to another department. The move can develop new capability and support succession, while creating space for emerging talent to take greater responsibility. Encourage those aspiring contributors and let them demonstrate what they can do. When the original high performer returns after a period away, the team effectively reforms. Give both the returning colleague and those who stepped up coaching or mentoring responsibilities. This builds experience relevant to future management, develops less-experienced colleagues, reduces the manager’s direct burden and may help retain talented people until promotion becomes possible.
4. Add a new member. A new arrival changes the group dynamic; after an adjustment period, productivity should begin to grow again.
5. Give the team a new project that alters everyone’s contribution and responsibilities.

Final analysis.

The sigmoid curve is a conceptual aid, not a scientific forecasting instrument. Intervening too early can interrupt a team that might otherwise have sustained excellent performance. Repeated interventions can also create change fatigue and reduce motivation.

Acting too late carries the opposite danger: recovering from an established decline may demand enormous effort. The model therefore requires managerial courage and sound judgement. Its distinctive premise is that renewal should begin while the current system is still working well. A sequence of modest, well-timed changes will often sustain engagement and performance more effectively than an occasional dramatic reorganisation.

Top practical tip

Watch for the point at which strong performance is becoming routine, and prepare a focused renewal before decline is visible.

Top pitfall

Do not treat the curve as a timetable. Changing a team too early can destroy a period of high performance that still had room to continue.

Further reading

Handy, C. (1995) The Empty Raincoat: Making sense of the future. London: Random House Business.